SignalMacro

CBOE Crude Oil Volatility $44.96 ↓ 3.1% 11th %ile (complacency) • KXWTI 8.5% — $117 or above

Kalshi: KXWTI 8.5% — Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >116.99 on Nov 3, 2026?

What changed

Kalshi: KXWTI 8.5% — Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be >116.99 on Nov 3, 2026? Percentile: 11th in 90d range | Regime: complacency

Why it matters

Low oil volatility signals market complacency, yet KXWTI implies 8.5% odds of $117+ by Nov 2026.

Sources

futures